Flood message issued March 10, 2026

A yellow graphic indicating a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook and Water Safety flood message has been issued.

Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook and Water Safety flood message issued at: Tuesday, March 10, 2026 at 1:00 p.m. 

Rainfall forecast of 25 – 50 mm may result in minor flooding. 

Watershed residents are reminded to stay away from waterways.

Forecast rainfall totals between 25-50 millimetres (mm) are expected, starting tonight (Tuesday, March 10, 2026) and continuing through tomorrow across the Ausable Bayfield watershed area. Thunderstorms may result in locally higher rainfall amounts. 

While water levels across the watershed are currently trending lower, they remain elevated due to snowmelt and rainfall over the past week. Rainfall totals already received over the past 4 days range from 20 to 40 mm. Ground conditions are saturated with limited capacity to absorb additional rainfall, which could result in faster runoff and further increases in water levels.

Given the wide range of forecasted rainfall amounts at this time, streamflow forecasts also vary significantly. Streamflow models indicate that minor flooding is possible in low-lying, undeveloped flood plain areas. However, should we receive the higher forecast amounts, flooding potential increases which may impact secondary roads prone to flooding.

Residents are reminded to use caution near all watercourses as waters will be fast-moving and higher than normal. Slippery, unstable streambanks and extremely cold water temperatures will create additional hazards. High flows are expected through the weekend on the larger rivers.
Municipal staff should continue to monitor local drainage problem areas where water is prone to ponding. 

This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. noon on Monday, March 16, 2026, unless otherwise updated. Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.