Flood message issued April 2, 2026
Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) issued a Watershed Conditions Statement – Flood Outlook and Water Safety flood message at 3 p.m. on Thursday, April 2, 2026:
Rainfall forecast of 20- 40 millimetres over Easter weekend.
Watershed residents are reminded to stay away from waterways.
A series of low-pressure systems are expected to bring unsettled weather to southwestern Ontario over the next several days.
Total rainfall amounts are forecasted to range from 20 to 40 millimetres (mm), beginning today (Thursday, April 2, 2026) and continuing through Saturday of the Easter long weekend.
Rain has already begun in some areas, and the bulk of the precipitation is expected on Saturday, when 20 to 25 mm of rain is expected.
While water levels across the watershed are currently trending lower, they remain slightly elevated due to rainfall over the past week. Some areas, particularly in the northern part of the watershed, have already received up to 35 mm of rainfall over the past two days. With soils already saturated and limited capacity to absorb additional precipitation, the forecasted rainfall is expected to contribute to increased runoff and rising water levels.
Based on the current forecast, water levels are expected to rise but remain below bankfull conditions. However, if forecasted rainfall amounts increase or if localized thunderstorms develop, there is the potential for water levels to rise further, which could lead to minor, localized flooding within traditional flood plain areas.
Residents are reminded to use caution near all watercourses as waters will be fast-moving and higher than normal. Slippery, unstable streambanks and cold water temperatures will create additional hazards. Elevated flows are expected through the Easter weekend, so extra caution is advised when planning outdoor activities or travelling.
Municipal staff should continue to monitor local drainage problem areas where water is prone to ponding.
This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. noon on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, unless otherwise updated.
Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.