Flood message issued on March 4, 2026

A yellow box saying Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook, Water Safety

Date of issue: Wednesday, March 4, 2026 at 3 p.m.

Warm air and rain may result in minor flooding 

Slight risk of ice jams

Watershed residents are reminded to stay away from waterways.

Daytime-high temperatures above freezing have resulted in the ripening of the remaining snowpack. The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with a rain forecast of 15-25 millimetres (mm) across the Ausable Bayfield watershed area beginning early tomorrow morning (Thursday, March 5, 2026), and lasting into the evening. Light showers are expected overnight Friday.

Snow survey data collected on March 2, 2026 shows that the water equivalent in the snowpack varies significantly by location. The snow water equivalent ranges between 2 and 73 mm. This means that, in some locations, there may be capacity to absorb some of the initial rain, before the snow melt occurs, while there is limited capacity in other areas. At this time, there is still some uncertainty in both how much warm air will push into the area, and the track of the forecasted rain. Actual observed temperatures and rainfall over the next several days will determine the volume of runoff and how much of the snowpack melts. With saturated soils, a quick runoff is expected.

Based on current weather forecasts, river flow models suggest minor flooding in the low-lying undeveloped flood plain areas is likely. This may impact some secondary roads that are traditionally flood-prone. While river flows are not expected to be significant, flows will be enough to move any remaining ice. 

A slight risk of ice jamming will be dependent on how quickly river levels rise. Ice jam potential is limited primarily to the lower portions of the Ausable and Bayfield rivers, including the river mouth areas of Port Franks, Bayfield, and, to a lesser extent, Grand Bend.

Residents are reminded to use caution near all watercourses as waters will be fast-moving and higher than normal. Slippery, snow-covered and unstable streambanks and extremely cold water temperatures will create additional hazards. Municipal staff should continue to monitor local drainage problem areas where water is ponding or where snow conditions may have covered catch basins.

All ice should be considered unsafe.

This message will remain in effect until 12:00 p.m. on Monday, March 9, 2026, unless otherwise updated. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.