Flood message issued

A yellow graphic indicating a Watershed Conditions Statement - Flood Outlook and Water Safety flood message has been issued.

Warm temperatures and up to 25 millimetres (mm) of rain, risk of minor flooding.

Watershed residents are reminded to stay away from waterways.

An approaching warm front is to be followed by rainfall of up to 25 millimetres (mm) to the Ausable Bayfield watershed area beginning Saturday, December 28th, 2024. 

Based on the current weather predictions, river-flow forecast models indicate that levels in watercourses will start to rise later this weekend as temperatures begin to increase and snowpack begins to melt. Temperatures over the weekend are expected to reach 10 degrees Celsius. 

Snow survey data collected by Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority (ABCA) staff over the last week has shown some areas still contain more than 50 mm of snow-water equivalent in the existing snowpack. A combination of snowmelt and additional rainfall is expected through December 31st and will deplete the snowpack, resulting in high flows that will remain elevated into the new year. While many watercourses are likely to exceed their banks, major flooding is not anticipated at this time, with flooded areas limited to the low-lying undeveloped flood plains. The potential extent of flooding will depend on the timing, temperatures, and total rainfall.

Municipal staff should monitor local drainage problem areas where snow conditions may have covered catch basins.

With the holidays approaching, special consideration should be given towards water safety during gatherings and outdoor recreational activities. Residents are reminded that all ice should be considered unsafe and to use caution near all watercourses. Slippery and unstable streambanks, streambanks hidden by drifted snow, and extremely cold water temperatures create additional hazards. 

This message will remain in effect until 9:00 a.m. on Friday, January 3, 2025, unless otherwise updated. The Ausable Bayfield Conservation Authority will continue to monitor watershed conditions and will provide an update if required.